Trump’s Defeat: What Went Wrong
The US presidential election of 2020 is being considered as one of the most historic elections in US history. In the middle of a pandemic, which caused the death of more than 233,000 citizens to date, the elections ended in an uncertain situation.
Regardless of what critics say, President Trump did secure over 72 million votes, the second-highest total in American history, which is another milestone for a president who lost the election. But the question arises what went wrong that an incumbent president who secured record votes ended up losing the election?
Historically, most of the American presidential elections revolve around swing states where undecided voters cast their votes based on current issues, candidate’s performance, and manifesto. But President Trump couldn’t connect with these undecided voters and opted to side with those who stuck with him all four years rather than reach out to supporters who drifted away.
For example, in the swing state of North Carolina, a small town 17 miles from Charlotte, people in Gastonia line the streets with large trucks and ATVs to show solidarity but he never showed up. As a matter of fact, Trump’s team spent most of their time finding the carbon copies of those who didn’t vote in 2016 in Gastonia and convincing them to cast a ballot this time. Bullhead City, Arizona, Montoursville, Pennsylvania, and Rome, Georgia have similar stories.
In Arizona, Trump fueled anger in republicans when he feuded with the state’s icon senator the late John McCain. A similar case happened when Congressman John Lewis from Atlanta, Georgia died, Trump didn’t honor his civil rights legacy. As a result, we witnessed a record number of democrat turnout in the state, especially in Atlanta.
Before COVID-19, Trump had the highest approval level of 49%, he survived the impeachment trial and the economy was on the robust, but the mishandling of the pandemic played a wider role in Trump’s defeat. Even though according to many survey polls, Americans were ready to forgive him for his negligence in the handling of the pandemic, but his series of insulting statements related to COVID-19 kept on sprinkling peppers on affected people’s wounds.
Trump’s state of denial about COVID-19 landed him in the hospital. “If the President never gets COVID, he wins the election. Our polling showed a significant dip when that happened, particularly with suburban, college-educated, non-liberal men,” says GOP strategist Brad Todd. “Trump getting COVID sent a signal to those people that his management style had consequences even for him personally and was therefore unlikely to change.”
In 2016 in swing states, among white males with a college degree, Trump had 14 points lead which fell to 2 points in 2020. Similarly, he lost support from white college degree holder women.
On the other hand, Joe Biden improved within suburb women, regained the support of 373 counties which enabled him to climb in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, plus Georgia, and Arizona.
Throughout Trump’s campaign, political scientists have observed that highly educated Republicans, who voted for him in 2016, echoed their voices that Trump’s presidency style is very unpresidential. According to them, they hardly saw any former republican president or other top-ranked Republican leadership standing with him and supporting him.
Trump’s position on racial division, which he thinks worked very well in 2016, hurt him the most in the 2020 elections. His tweet handling of racial tension, insulting behavior towards the victims, and failure to condemn the white supremacy groups damaged him not only among the people of color but also among the independent and educated republicans.
“I traveled around the country and talked to thousands of people, I think President Trump’s lack of political experience, a norm-busting political outsider, his anti-establishment posture and failure to maintain a working relationship with media contributed to his failure in the re-election bid”, said Sajid Tarar co-chair Muslims Voices for Trump. “In four years, he was not able to complete his team, only a handful of 4000 people, and Obama’s political appointees were still in the office working against him all this time”, said Tarar.
From 1929 to 1933, America has seen a great depression, but President Franklin Roosevelt sailed the nation out of the storm and became even stronger politically. President George Bush’s response to September 11, 2001’s terror attack was greatly appreciated, and people elected him for the second term. President Trump could have joined hands with Dr. Anthony Fauci, stood with people to grieve their loss, and appreciated the power of diversity in America. But he chose the other way which contributed to his fall. As a result, Joe Biden secured 78 million votes which are the highest votes for any president in US history.
But one should remember that despite the country’s worse health crisis in 100 years, the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression, and extreme racial turbulence since the Civil Rights Movement, Trump won 72 million votes. It proves that if he stays in politics he will be a dominating figure among conservatives for years to come. The American society might see another transforming effect of “the Trumpism” which American conservatism has already seen as Reaganism.
Moreover, traditionally we have seen that the outgoing president remains deeply polarized and politically viable which makes a stronger case for Trump to run for 2024 elections again.
